Soybean Supremacy: How Brazil Outpaced the U.S. in the Global Protein Race

Brazil and the United States collectively dominate the global soybean trade, accounting for 85% of annual exports. However, their strategies and market trajectories are diverging sharply. Brazil’s soybean production has surged, with exports ballooning by 61% over the past decade, while U.S. shipments have stagnated, declining 2% in the same period. China remains the linchpin of this trade, absorbing over 60% of global soybean imports. Yet, the U.S. has struggled to regain its pre-2018 trade war footing with Beijing, where shipments to China fell 12% compared to the 2015–2017 average. Meanwhile, Brazil capitalized on China’s shift, boosting its soy exports to the Asian giant by 51% since the trade war began.

While China dominates, other players are reshaping the soybean landscape. The European Union, the world’s second-largest importer, accounts for 6% of global soybean purchases. Historically, the EU sourced two-thirds of Brazil’s soy exports in the early 2000s; today, that share has dwindled to 7%, though volumes remain steady. The U.S. has filled some gaps, with 11% of its soy exports now heading to the EU. However, looming EU restrictions on agricultural chemicals could jeopardize this trade, forcing American exporters to pivot to markets like Mexico—already the U.S.’s second-largest single-country buyer, absorbing 10% of its soybeans.

Brazil, meanwhile, faces its own vulnerabilities. Despite exporting nearly 80% more soy by volume than the U.S., its reliance on China (72% of total exports) leaves it exposed to geopolitical or demand shocks. Smaller markets like Turkey, Indonesia, and Thailand absorb just 2–3% of Brazil’s shipments, underscoring the need for diversification.

Tariff threats and policy shifts add uncertainty. The U.S. risks losing access to the EU and Mexico—key buyers—amid retaliatory trade measures. Meanwhile, Brazil’s export boom masks challenges: its infrastructure struggles to keep pace with production, and environmental concerns threaten its reputation as a sustainable supplier.

Domestic demand could alter the equation. The U.S. has floated aggressive biofuel mandates to boost soybean consumption at home, but these plans remain stalled. Without such measures, a smaller 2025 U.S. crop could tighten global supplies, further ceding ground to Brazil.

The soybean market is at a crossroads. Brazil’s meteoric rise underscores its capacity to meet global demand, but overreliance on China is a ticking clock. The U.S., while more diversified, faces mounting trade barriers and stagnant growth. For importers like the EU and Mexico, the competition between these giants could lower costs—or spark volatility if protectionism escalates. As Karen Braun notes, the “agri-trade Cold War” between Brazil and the U.S. will define global food security for years to come.